Buy Now or Wait?

 

Buy Now or Wait?

A Buyer's Guide to the Property Market in the Shadow of the Middle East Conflict

Published March 2026

If you are trying to decide whether to buy a home right now, you are making that decision in one of the most genuinely uncertain property markets in several years. The conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has sent energy prices sharply higher, disrupted mortgage rate expectations, and introduced a level of geopolitical uncertainty that the UK housing market had not been pricing in just a few weeks ago.

This guide sets out what the current situation actually means for buyers, the honest arguments on both sides of the buy now versus wait debate, and what practical steps you can take regardless of which way you decide to go.

 

What Has Actually Changed

Before the Middle East conflict escalated in late February and early March 2026, the story for property buyers in 2026 looked relatively encouraging. The Bank of England had cut interest rates four times during 2025, bringing the base rate down to 3.75% by December. Mortgage rates had fallen meaningfully from their 2023 peak, with some fixed rate deals available at levels not seen since 2022. Markets were pricing in a reasonable chance of a further cut at the Bank's 19 March meeting.

That picture has changed significantly in the space of a few weeks. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one fifth of the world's daily oil supply passes, has pushed Brent crude above 100 dollars per barrel for the first time since 2022. The inflationary consequences of higher energy prices have caused financial markets to rapidly reprice their expectations for Bank of England rate cuts.

 

Where Things Stand: March 2026
Bank of England base rate	3.75% (held, February 2026)
Average UK house price	£301,151 (Halifax, February 2026)
Annual house price growth	1.3% nationally; Northern Ireland 6.3%, Scotland 4.7%, South East -2.2%
Brent crude oil	Above $100 per barrel since conflict escalation
Next Bank of England decision	19 March 2026 — outcome highly uncertain
Mortgage rates	Rising: major lenders including HSBC, Nationwide and Coventry have already increased selected fixed rate products

 

The five year SONIA swap rate, which lenders use to price fixed rate mortgages, closed at 3.9% in early March, up from 3.5% before the conflict began. That is the highest level in almost a year. Mortgage markets move faster in response to rising expectations than falling ones, meaning rates are likely to continue climbing unless the conflict de-escalates quickly.

 

The Case for Buying Now

Prices May Not Fall Meaningfully

One of the most common reasons buyers wait is the hope that prices will fall. In the current environment, that logic has some surface appeal, but several factors argue against a significant correction.

The twelve-month outlook from surveyors and analysts remains broadly positive. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reported in February 2026 that a net 33% of contributors expect house prices to be higher in twelve months, even after adjusting downwards for geopolitical uncertainty. Capital Economics' worst-case scenario, which it describes as low probability, involves a fall of around 15%. More central forecasts expect modest growth to continue, particularly outside London and the South East where affordability pressures are less acute.

The factors that drive structural demand in UK housing have not changed. Population growth, constrained housebuilding, and a persistent shortage of supply in many parts of the country are not resolved by a conflict in the Middle East.

Mortgage Rates Are Rising and Could Rise Further

This is perhaps the most compelling argument for acting sooner rather than later, if you are in a position to do so. Mortgage rates have already started to move upwards in response to swap rate volatility. The window of competitive fixed rate pricing that buyers enjoyed in late 2025 and early 2026 is narrowing.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank have warned that UK inflation could rise to nearly 4% by the end of 2026 if the conflict is prolonged, which would severely restrict the Bank of England's ability to cut rates further. Some market participants are now pricing in the possibility of rate increases rather than cuts through to early 2027. If that scenario materialises, the fixed rate mortgage available to you today may look considerably more attractive in six or twelve months' time.

A useful practical point if you are in the process of obtaining a mortgage offer, experts recommend securing a rate now and locking it in. Mortgage brokers note that lenders can often switch borrowers to a better rate right up until two weeks before their mortgage term starts, meaning you can benefit from any future improvements without being exposed to further rises.

You Are Buying a Home, Not Timing a Market

This point is easily overlooked in the noise of current events. For most buyers, the primary purpose of purchasing a property is to have somewhere to live, to provide stability for a family, or to stop paying rent that generates no equity. Those motivations are not fundamentally altered by events in the Middle East.

A property purchased on a five-year fixed rate today at, say, 4.5% will have been purchased at historically moderate rates by the standards of the last thirty years. The period of base rates below 1% was the anomaly, not the norm. Buyers who delayed in 2021 waiting for rates to fall found instead that prices rose by 10% to 15% in parts of the country. The cost of waiting is real and often underestimated.

Competition May Be Lower Right Now

Sentiment surveys show that buyer enquiries fell in February 2026, and agreed sales are running below average. That means less competition for properties, more room for price negotiation, and sellers who have been waiting for some time may be more flexible on terms. A market that is quieter due to uncertainty can present genuine opportunities for buyers who have the financial resilience to proceed.

 

The Case for Waiting

The Situation Is Genuinely Fluid

The honest argument for waiting begins with acknowledging that no analyst, economist or commentator can tell you with confidence how the conflict will develop. The Strait of Hormuz closure could ease within weeks, or it could persist for months. A prolonged conflict scenario, in which oil prices remain elevated and UK inflation rises back towards 4%, would carry real consequences for the housing market.

Knight Frank's head of UK residential research has noted that a protracted conflict could dampen sentiment and delay rate cuts, putting downward pressure on prices. If that scenario unfolds, buyers who wait may find a combination of lower prices and, eventually, lower mortgage rates, once the inflationary shock passes.

Short Term Sentiment Is Negative

Near term house price expectations have deteriorated significantly. The RICS net balance for expected short term price changes fell to minus 18% in February 2026, from minus 6% in January. That is not a prediction that prices will fall sharply, but it does reflect a genuine deterioration in confidence among market participants who are closer to day to day activity than any macroeconomic forecast.

Buyers who are not under time pressure have legitimate reasons to monitor the situation for a month or two before committing, particularly if they are operating at the upper end of their budget. Completing on a property and then watching your mortgage rate increase before you have even moved in is a risk worth taking seriously.

Energy Costs Will Affect Household Budgets

Higher energy prices will not only affect mortgage rate expectations. They will directly increase household running costs for everyone. If you are stretching your finances to purchase, particularly on a new build where energy efficiency may be offset by higher purchase prices, it is worth stress testing your budget against a scenario in which energy bills remain elevated for twelve to eighteen months.

If You Are Buying a New Build, Extra Caution Is Warranted

New build buyers face particular considerations in the current climate. Developers routinely impose tight exchange deadlines, sometimes as short as 28 days, and buyers can find themselves pressured into committing before the full legal and financial picture is clear. In a period of genuine market uncertainty, being rushed into the largest financial commitment of your life is a risk that deserves careful thought.

You are entitled to a pre-completion inspection under the New Homes Quality Code, which was updated in March 2026. You also have the right to instruct any conveyancer of your choosing, regardless of who the developer recommends. Use both of those protections. Ensure your conveyancer is reviewing the contract pack thoroughly, not simply processing the transaction at speed to hit an arbitrary developer deadline.

 

Questions to Ask Yourself Before Deciding

Rather than trying to predict what markets will do, the most useful exercise is to apply these questions to your own situation.

 

Financial resilience questions Can you afford the mortgage repayments if rates rise by a further 1% after you complete? Do you have emergency savings to cover unexpected costs in the first year of ownership? Are you buying at or below the maximum you can borrow, or are you right at the limit of affordability? If you are using a Help to Buy or shared ownership scheme, do you fully understand what repayment looks like on resale?

 

Circumstance questions Do you have a pressing reason to move, such as a growing family, a job change, or a lease ending? How long are you planning to stay in the property? Shorter horizons increase market timing risk. Is the property you want to buy available now, or are you in a position to be patient and selective? Have you chosen a conveyancer who has no financial relationship with the developer or selling agent?

 

Mortgage questions Have you obtained a mortgage in principle, and for how long is it valid? Have you spoken to an independent mortgage broker who can monitor rates on your behalf? Do you understand what your repayments will look like at the end of your initial fixed rate period? If you are remortgaging an existing property to fund the purchase, have you modelled the cost of a rate rise before completion?

 

Practical Steps Regardless of Your Decision

Secure a Mortgage Offer Now Even If You Are Not Ready to Exchange

A mortgage offer typically remains valid for three to six months. Obtaining one now locks in a rate as a fallback position without committing you to a purchase. If rates fall before you need to draw down, your broker can often switch you to a better product. If rates rise further, you have protection. The cost of a mortgage offer is minimal; the cost of not having one when you need it can be significant.

Choose an Independent Conveyancer

Whether you are buying a new build or a resale property, your conveyancer works for you and only you. In new build transactions in particular, there can be structural pressure on conveyancers who are approved by developers to process transactions quickly rather than scrutinise them carefully. Ask your conveyancer directly whether they receive referral fees or are on any developer panel, and take the answer seriously.

Read the Contract Before You Agree to Anything

Reservation agreements, new build contracts, and standard form sale contracts all contain terms that can bind you in ways you may not expect. Do not sign a reservation form at a sales office without reading it carefully and understanding whether the fee is refundable and in what circumstances. The reservation fee trap, as it is sometimes called, creates immediate financial and psychological pressure to proceed regardless of what the subsequent legal due diligence reveals.

Monitor the Bank of England Decision on 19 March

The Bank of England announces its next interest rate decision on 19 March 2026. Expectations have shifted dramatically in the past two weeks. A hold is now the most likely outcome, but the statement from the Monetary Policy Committee will give important signals about how policymakers are reading the inflation risk from the Middle East conflict, and what that means for the path of rates over the remainder of 2026. If you are in active negotiations on a property, the decision and its accompanying commentary is worth reading carefully.

Do Not Let Anyone Rush You

Whether you are dealing with a developer's sales consultant, an estate agent, or a mortgage broker working to a commission deadline, pressure to act quickly is rarely in your interests. In a period of genuine uncertainty, the ability to take a few extra days to think, to ask additional questions, and to ensure your finances are sound is worth protecting. Any professional who is genuinely on your side will understand that.

 

The Bottom Line

There is no universal right answer to the buy now or wait question, and anyone who tells you otherwise is either selling you something or more confident in their ability to predict geopolitical events than the evidence warrants.

The most honest assessment is this. If you are financially resilient, have a genuine need to move, have found a property you want, and can secure competitive mortgage finance today, the arguments for proceeding remain credible. The long term fundamentals of the UK housing market have not been altered by the conflict, and waiting carries its own costs and risks.

If you are at the margins of affordability, under no immediate pressure to move, or are being rushed towards exchange on a new build with little time for proper due diligence, waiting a few weeks for greater clarity is a reasonable and defensible choice.

In either case, the decision should be based on your own financial position, your own circumstances, and independent advice from professionals who are genuinely working for you rather than for the transaction.

 

This guide is intended as general information only and does not constitute legal or financial advice. The property market, interest rate outlook and geopolitical situation described reflect the position as at March 2026 and may change rapidly. Please seek independent legal and financial advice before making any property purchase decision.

Sent from Outlook for Mac